Fridi (luvdovz) wrote in talk_politics,

That's what we call wishful thinking in general jargon

Stratfor has 11 chilling predictions for what the world will look like a decade from now

The predictions in a nutshell:

- Russia will collapse ...
- ... and the US will have to use its military to secure the country's nukes.
- Germany is going to have problems ...
- ... and Poland will be one of Europe's leaders.
- There will be four Europes.
- Turkey and the US will have to be close allies but for an unexpected reason.
- China will face one huge problem.
- Japan will be Asia's rising naval power.
- The South China Sea islands won't start a war - but there's a catch.
- There will be 16 mini-Chinas.
- US power will decline.

And here's the whole forecast (2015-2025)

Funny! Everyone perishes or suffers while the US generally flourishes at some relatively minor cost. Hardly a surprise that Stratfor seems to be reflecting far-right policies in Washington rather than any on the ground research. But even if we're to entertain that neo-hawk pipe-dream for a while, what will the US do with itself once there's no one else to bomb and rob? Invent foes from within to exercise their geopolitical prowess on? Heh.

Stratfor makes the future world sound like Thanksgiving. It's just "Us and Turkey". Gee, almost sounds like a good script for the next Chuck Norris B-movie, remember Invasion USA?

In fact, Forward Strategy (StratFor) is about planning - not predicting. Example: Let's start trouble in Ukraine, weaken and fracture Russia, manipulate the surrounding vultures as the US takes the lion's share, of the Russian bear as he falters. No strong Russia - no need to tolerate a strong Germany in a united EU, set them at each other's throat whilst we are at it. Sounds more like it. It's nice and sort of naive of them to publish what in Germany and Russia will be understood as policy aimed at their jugulars. But anyway.

The bottom-line is this. Profit. They've got to sell subscriptions and memberships and "inside" investment advice to all of the fake arm-chair chicken hawk warriors, Jethro Bodine amateur spies, and optimistic trust fund rich kiddos looking for somewhere to invest the millions mummy and daddy gave'm. As a result, they tell them what they want to hear and, at this point in history, they want to hear that the US will continue in its current form and be financially strong while everyone will drown in the gutter.

If they were to be a bit more honest, the outlook for the US would probably be more negative than positive. Some'd call that realistic. That outlook would make their current and potential suckers... err... customers wonder whether they will have much money left to invest or play with and, if that's the case, Stratfor might dry up and blow away. So there.

Let's put ole George Friedman's predictions in perspective, then. In 1991, after studying a potential conflict between Japan and the US, he wrote a book with his wife and employee of Stratfor, The Coming War With Japan. Funny how all that worked out, yeah?
Tags: geopolitics, hypothesis
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