Spas (htpcl) wrote in talk_politics,

Geopolitical free-for-all, yo!

Privet, comrades! Greetings, politics junkies! I'm sure you know pretty well that the Russian blogosphere is full of self-proclaimed genius political experts. Especially geopolitics experts! Well, here's the latest gem of a geopolitical column called Obozrevatel (granted, it's Ukrainian, but still... Ukrainians, Russians... they're the same sort of Ivans).

Behold Europe of 2035, as per the surveys of CIA/KGB/Mossad/whatever:


No, actually it's a crazy bold rambling prediction of a raving lunatic political expert about what Europe and this part of the world at the wrong side of the Big Water might be looking like in, say, two decades (??) So let's peer into all that crazy, shall we?

Take a nice look at the maps. Does something tickle your sight? Oooh that's right! A major re-mapping of the Old Continent has taken place. Apparently, the author has looked into their crystal orb, and seen the Truth. Which is? Well, despite its economic and political might, Europe will undergo some serious cataclysms in the next decades. That's for starters.

The thing is, those changes won't just be merely geographical, but most of all economic. In fact this has started already. As the center of world business moves to Asia, this will be coupled with demographic problems, because Europe's (and the West's) population is steadily aging. Meanwhile, there'll be changes in the ethnic composition of the region, as the unstoppable influx of immigrants continues. This will change the values and agenda of these societies, the author argues. We'll look into some scary examples as well, do bear with me.

Having all this shit in mind, they've drawn this rather curious map of Europe, as it "would" look like in 2035 (or sooner). For instance, a good chunk of my country would become part of Turkey, "because of the significant Turkish minority in the country". Except, the lands showed in the map (Burgas region) are not the ones dominated by said Turkish minority. But who cares! When you play the Civilization game, do such things matter? Not really.

Anyway, the re-drawing of Europe's borders might start as soon as 2014 in fact, when the Scottish will be voting in a referendum if they want to remain within the United Kingdom, or have a divorce with Her Majesty. And because the Scottish nationalists are now a majority in the parliament in Edinburgh, the secession scenario looks very likely in the mind of the above clairvoyant. And once this happens... DOMINO EFFECT, OMG!!! The separatists in N.Ireland are biding their time, they'll attempt to unite all Irish lands under one holy republic... or a federation of some sorts. Probably only Wales will remain true to Her Majesty's cause, those cravens. And the "United" Kingdom will become just... "Kingdom" then. The name doesn't bear such an exciting ring to it, does it?

Some serious re-drawing will happen in Iberia as well. Obviously, the rampant unemployment in Spain (the most unemployed country in EU) will boost the separatist moods to a point where some crazy ideas will get into some heads. And when people have nothing to do but play cards (after their daily afternoon siesta), they tend to think about civil wars, okay?? Culprit #1 would of course be those pesky Basques. Then the Catalans. They'll finally manage to secede, and maybe save their asses from the impending economic doom, by building a utopian society resting upon tourism, wine, and... fútbol! Madrid will hold its power on the remaining regions, but not without making some concessions and turning Spain into a patchy federation. Or even a confederation, consisting of Swiss-style cantons. Fun, fun!

But we're only just getting started. Even bigger turmoil will happen in France. It'll go through colossal multicultural and political cataclysms, the central power becoming more like a puppet regime (Vichy-style? oh no, not again)... In any case, the French multicultural model will ultimately fail (Merkel has already said as much), and the French won't manage to assimilate the huge African and Middle Eastern population crowding in from the former colonies. It's a matter of time until the crescent reigns under the Eiffel tower!

Further, the authors argue that at the current speed of the demographic and migration processes in France, the prediction points at the French becoming a minority in their own country by 2035, and thus the only "solution" being to split the regions with the most "colored" population away from France, and, wait for it... deport those who remain in the "Real France" into the "Fake France". We're mostly talking of the Marseille-Piedmont region, also parts of South Burgundy.

Fun part: France is exactly where the first Arab Islamic state formation in Europe since the Moorish caliphates would appear, while parts of Aquitaine will join the newly formed Basque country. And Lotharingia will return to Germany (cuz they're German anyways). By the same token, let's not rule out the Corsicans gaining their independence as well. They'd probably live on a goat- and olive-based economy, or something like that.

Moving north, the processes in Benelux will be much simpler. The Flemish and Walloons who've been hatin' on each other in Belgium as we speak, will remain true to their boring Belgian ways and will rather split peacefully and quietly without too much hand-waving, the former joining the Netherlands economically (and probably politically), while the latter would join France. That'll be France's only territorial gain, while most other changes will be to its detriment, as described above.

Italy won't be spared the sweeping changes either. Northern Italy will voluntarily want to split away from the miserable southern part (the Northern League probably proclaiming Silvio I, pictured below, King for life of the Oligarchic Republic of Lombardia), and in return will probably promise their poor southern cousins a federal union, German-style. Or maybe another canton-ish Switzerland. Sardinia and Sicilly will feel suddenly insulted, and they'll both blow a fuse, throw their hands in the air and flounce out of the room.

But if you thought all of this is the ultimate shenanigans, you better look at our dear old Balkans. It's always the most exciting part of any story! Let's start with former Yugoslavia (because everything always starts there). Because of all the problems in France with the Muslim population, the Western Balkan states would be frightened by the prospect of having a Muslim Caliphate there and going through another multi-war all over again. So they'll call for the dissolution of Bosnia & Herzegovina. So they'll split it between themselves, an exercise they're so good at. Ultimately, Croatia and Serbia will swallow Bosnia, and build a wall between themselves to prevent each other's fútbol hools from jumping over and shitting all over the place. But so as not to anger mighty Turkey (now undoubtedly one of the world's superpowers), they'll propose the formation of Greater Albania, uniting all Albanians and chopping parts off of Macedonia (and including Kosovo of course). The Hungarians will love the example, and they'll take North Voivodina from Serbia, and re-take Transylvania from Romania. If they're lucky. And the Hungarians always are.

But if you thought Bosnia would have hard times, why not look at Poland! First, it'll lose all territories "inhabited by Germans" (no matter that those Germans are just a tiny minority in those regions at the moment, but let's not be too dense now, okay?) For some reason, this obviously includes Pomerania and Silesia. If Berlin and Moscow reach a Stalin-Ribbentrop v.2.0 agreement, Poland would lose its north-eastern corner as well. And Germany might get Kaliningrad as a present. Western Ukraine (now called Galicia), which will have split away from Ukraine by then, will get the Trans-Carpathian and Lublin region. This will complete the formation of the Agrarian People's Republic of Galicia. Ukraine-proper will lose the Chernovitsky region as well, which will jump over to Romania. And if Crimea and the Donetsk region secedes and joins Russia (because of the Russian majority living there), Ukraine will have returned to its 17th century borders.

The only place where boredom will continue to rule supreme, predictably, is Scandinavia. Because the Nordics are so pragmatic and moderate, they must've gotten the knack of solving their issues without pulling the pencils out and scribbling all over maps. The only changes that might occur anywhere near Scandinavia, would be in the Baltics. Parts of the Russian-dominated lands in Latvia and Estonia could go to Russia. All in all, Eastern Europe will be re-drawn almost completely. Belarus will be wiped off the map altogether and will return to a Soviet-like neo-empire (the Eurasian Union is already a project in the making as we speak).

Romania will both gain and lose in this game of wild hypotheticals. In compensation for its loss of Transylvania, it'll swallow Moldova, even parts of the Odessa region of Ukraine (it has been salivating for that corner for ages, we're being told). And what about the Caucasian quagmire? Well, the North Caucasian republics Chechnya, Dagestan and Ingushetia will first secede, then fuse into the Caucasian Caliphate (such plans are part of the agenda of the Chechen insurgents even today). In turn, Georgia will get South Ossetia back, but will lose Abkhazia by the Black Sea (it'll join the Krasnodar region of Russia). The Nagorno-Karabakh question that's been festering for decades between Armenia and Azerbaijan, will be solved through Russian intervention, and Russia forming a territorial corridor, thus acquiring a land border with Armenia for the first time. This will split Georgia in two - West Georgia and East Georgia.

Because of the loss of the Karabakh region, Turkey will have to be compensated somehow, and they'll probably be given more territories on the Balkans, which brings us back to the Burgas region in S-E Bulgaria. In two decades, Sunny Beach, this Mecca of debauchery, might be turned into a new Antalya, but because Turkey will have become like Saudi Arabia by then, most probably any female tourists wanting to sunbathe on our gorgeous beaches, will have to wear a burqa by the seaside. Something like this maybe:

Yeah, fine, the authors say. All of this may or may not happen. It takes lots of circumstances and chance, and a lot of time to make it reality.

Oh really? Who cares. For all I know, it may've already happened in a parallel universe somewhere far, far away. There could be 10500 possible parallel universes, some string theorists postulate. And in one of them, 2035 has come and passed, and Europe has become a bloody mess. Which is not that unlikely, when you think about it. After all, it's not like it'd have been the first time, and neither the last. ;-)
Tags: europe, geopolitics, hypothesis, secession
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